Британские ученые жгут..
Jun. 27th, 2021 09:49 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
057rusВ Британии прогноз для вакцинированных на август 2021, сделанный еще в марте 2021 года.
Сайт https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-further-modelling-of-easing-restrictions-roadmap-step-2-31-march-2021
А вот и сам прогноз
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf
где написано, что ожидают в августе "Возобновление как госпитализаций, так и смертей происходит в основном за счет тех, кто получили две дозы вакцины, что составляет около 60% и 70% волны
соответственно. Это можно объяснить высоким уровнем потребления в возрастной группе повышенного риска которым за 50 лет.."
конкретно
"32. The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have
received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave
respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age
groups, such that immunisation failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated
individuals. This is discussed further in paragraphs 55 and 56.
Figure 4: England infections (top), hospital bed occupancy (middle), and deaths within 28 days of a
positive test (bottom) in the Imperial (left – purple) and Warwick (right – red) models, assuming central
assumptions including 90% coverage in the under 50-year olds and significant reduction in
transmission from baseline measures continue after Step 4. Peaks in occupancy and daily deaths
from January 2021 and levels seen in Spring 2020 are shown by dashed horizontal lines. Vertical
dashed lines show the dates at which each Roadmap step is taken. Shaded regions show the 95%"
Сайт https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-further-modelling-of-easing-restrictions-roadmap-step-2-31-march-2021
А вот и сам прогноз
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf
где написано, что ожидают в августе "Возобновление как госпитализаций, так и смертей происходит в основном за счет тех, кто получили две дозы вакцины, что составляет около 60% и 70% волны
соответственно. Это можно объяснить высоким уровнем потребления в возрастной группе повышенного риска которым за 50 лет.."
конкретно
"32. The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have
received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave
respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age
groups, such that immunisation failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated
individuals. This is discussed further in paragraphs 55 and 56.
Figure 4: England infections (top), hospital bed occupancy (middle), and deaths within 28 days of a
positive test (bottom) in the Imperial (left – purple) and Warwick (right – red) models, assuming central
assumptions including 90% coverage in the under 50-year olds and significant reduction in
transmission from baseline measures continue after Step 4. Peaks in occupancy and daily deaths
from January 2021 and levels seen in Spring 2020 are shown by dashed horizontal lines. Vertical
dashed lines show the dates at which each Roadmap step is taken. Shaded regions show the 95%"
